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Spot checks appear to be in order.
Nov. 6th, 2004 02:23 pmThis would certainly explain a lot.
(The description of how to hack the vote... I knew that, in theory, for someone with a reasonably good knowledge of the system it wouldn't be that hard. I didn't suspect it would be so bloody easy, though! Odd to realize that with a little time to check around on such a machine, I could have fairly easily figured out how to do it for myself.)
Check out the chart of voting results in Florida put together by Kathy Dopp, from the 2004 election data made public by the Florida Secretary of State's Office: voting totals, with county and seat breakdowns (and a link to download all the data yourself), and voter registration numbers.
They have also completed an initial analysis of the Pennsylvania voting data. Notice the extreme difference between the two states. In PA, there is no county with a deviation of more than 100% greater or less than expected. In Florida, 26 of the state's 67 counties showed greater than 100% deviation from expected numbers. (11 of those were over 200%; 4 of them over 300%; 3 over 400%; and one over 700%! - as tabulated from data available with 98.6% of precincts reporting; numbers will have changed very, very slightly since the updated, 100% reporting is now available. I expect Ms. Dopp will have updated charts up in the near future.)
( Patterns of extreme deviation = doubtful results )
For example, in the predominantly white Liberty County where over 80% of registered voters are Democrats, Bush received 699.59% more votes than expected:
When Ms. Dopp created her preliminary tables, 98.6% of the vote was in and voter turnout for Liberty county was reported as 74.1%. I updated the numbers for this one county, based on the 100% count now being reported by the FL SoS, with an updated voter turnout for Liberty county of 74.9%. Hence, Ms. Dopp's report shows a 712.3% increase above expected, while mine shows a slight downward correction to 699.59%.
(The description of how to hack the vote... I knew that, in theory, for someone with a reasonably good knowledge of the system it wouldn't be that hard. I didn't suspect it would be so bloody easy, though! Odd to realize that with a little time to check around on such a machine, I could have fairly easily figured out how to do it for myself.)
Check out the chart of voting results in Florida put together by Kathy Dopp, from the 2004 election data made public by the Florida Secretary of State's Office: voting totals, with county and seat breakdowns (and a link to download all the data yourself), and voter registration numbers.
They have also completed an initial analysis of the Pennsylvania voting data. Notice the extreme difference between the two states. In PA, there is no county with a deviation of more than 100% greater or less than expected. In Florida, 26 of the state's 67 counties showed greater than 100% deviation from expected numbers. (11 of those were over 200%; 4 of them over 300%; 3 over 400%; and one over 700%! - as tabulated from data available with 98.6% of precincts reporting; numbers will have changed very, very slightly since the updated, 100% reporting is now available. I expect Ms. Dopp will have updated charts up in the near future.)
( Patterns of extreme deviation = doubtful results )
For example, in the predominantly white Liberty County where over 80% of registered voters are Democrats, Bush received 699.59% more votes than expected:
| Reg Voters by Party Affil. |
Probable (est) results, based on turnout % |
Election results, from FL SOS Office |
Deviation from probable (est) results | |||||||||
| Rep | Dem | NA | Total | Bush | Kerry | Total | Bush | Kerry | Other | Total | ||
| 7.9% | 88.3% | 3.8% | 4075 | 241 | 2695 | 74.9% | 1927 | 1070 | 24 | 3021 | ||
When Ms. Dopp created her preliminary tables, 98.6% of the vote was in and voter turnout for Liberty county was reported as 74.1%. I updated the numbers for this one county, based on the 100% count now being reported by the FL SoS, with an updated voter turnout for Liberty county of 74.9%. Hence, Ms. Dopp's report shows a 712.3% increase above expected, while mine shows a slight downward correction to 699.59%.
